Although not officially on the summit agenda, “de-dollarization” was a priority for many of the BRICS countries and dozens of other participating nations. Some argue that the BRICS should establish its own currency to limit its dependence on the US dollar – but most observers say that is not feasible. What is more likely is that the BRICS countries and other partners will continue the trend of trading in their local currencies instead of using the dollar. BRICS Bank has already made loans in Chinese yuan and announced yesterday that it will do the same in South African and Brazilian currency.
USIP Andrew Cheatham and Adam Gallagher explain why this summit is important, what expanding the bloc will mean for the bloc’s future, and what all this means for the United States.
Why is this BRICS summit important and how does it affect major geopolitical trends?
cheat: Many around the world are eyeing the BRICS summit taking place in Johannesburg, in part because the BRICS nations together have a population of 3.5 billion, representing a significant segment of emerging markets. Global. The countries initially gathered as a group in the late 2000s to agree around finance, development and trade issues. However, the bloc has now grown to become a symbol for a party in a world of intense strategic competition and increasing multipolarity.
In this story, the G7 advanced economies — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States (and the European Union) — are in opposition. Although Brazil is not satisfied with this anti-Western framework, the great attention to the BRICS around the world has helped the rhetorical campaign by China and Russia to pin “the West” against “the rest”. With Russia’s illegal war of aggression raging in Ukraine and tensions escalating between China and the United States, countries are increasingly being called to side with one side or the other.
However, this is not a repeat of the Cold War. The so-called “middle power” has far greater global influence in international politics today. The BRICS is often seen as a pivotal space for such powers, especially the non-Western states of the Southern Hemisphere.
The expansion of the BRICS was one of the major themes of the summit. What will the group’s expansion signal about its orbit be?
cheat: More than 40 countries have requested to join the BRICS. As a member, countries will likely have a special relationship with members of the New Development Bank, which was established by the BRICS countries and provides financing to many countries seeking solutions. alternative to the Western-dominated Paris Club. In addition, many potential members are hoping to gain influence in a rising coalition of non-Western states with ambitions to reshape the global order.
For nearly 80 years, the traditional way to influence change and progress in the international system has been through multilateral institutions themselves. Today, however, we are witnessing a new wave of “multilateralism” – a style of diplomatic engagement that gives prominence to small and medium-sized alliances of like-minded states. direction. This trend is also increasing in the West and will be exacerbated by the expansion of the BRICS.
One problem with minimalism is that it risks further eroding our means of global collective action needed to address the major threats facing humanity today. The extreme weather events witnessed recently have highlighted an important balance between economic concerns and the urgent need for an energy transition to tackle climate change. .
But climate change is just one of many pressing issues. The rise of disruptive technologies – especially the widespread adoption of disruptive weapons technologies such as biological weapons by non-state actors – is particularly alarming. The popularity of the movie Oppenheimer will remind us all of the perennial nuclear threats – now increasing due to the precarious state of nuclear arms control. In addition, the ongoing challenges of diseases like COVID-19 underscore the ever-present risk of deadly pandemics. These represent only a small fraction of the existential dangers that require global cooperation. If the world splits into antagonistic small and medium-sized chunks, our collective ability to tackle these threats could be compromised.
Gallagher: The BRICS expansion debate shows how divided the bloc really is – it also shows structural issues that make the development of a common currency unlikely.
As US-China competition intensified over the past decade, Beijing increasingly sought to assert itself as the leader of an emerging multipolar world. The Global Security Initiative launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping last year is an effort to create a new global security order that Beijing says is capable of addressing peace challenges. peace and conflict may be more retreating than the Western-led system. With the BRICS already accounting for 40% of the world’s population and a quarter of global GDP, joining the bloc means that the BRICS will become a stronger and more influential group, further promoting multipolarity.
For its part, Moscow also aspires to promote a multipolar world and sees the expansion of the BRICS as potentially undermining the liberal international order. Isolated by the West following its illegal invasion of Ukraine, Russia has looked to the Southern Hemisphere to help sustain its economy. So a larger BRICS would help protect Moscow from Western sanctions and humiliation. And the attendance of dozens of countries at the summit will be seen by Moscow as a positive signal about its international standing.
South Africa is also a proponent of BRICS expansion. Ahead of the summit, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said he would like to see more African countries join and cooperate with the bloc and he has invited more than 30 African leaders to this week’s summit.
India and Brazil view this issue a little differently. Despite being the world’s seventh largest country by population, Brazil does not have the diplomatic weight of Russia or China and believes that the expansion of the BRICS will reduce its influence within the bloc and as a country. leader of the Global South.
India is wary of the bloc being openly anti-Western. As one of the founding nations of the Cold War non-alignment movement, India has continued this legacy in today’s competitive landscape of great powers. Despite being a member of the BRICS group and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization formed by China-Russia, New Delhi’s relationship with the United States has reached new heights in recent years and is a member of the Quartet. (along with Japan, Australia and the United States). States), an unsophisticated attempt to compete with China in the Indo-Pacific. Indeed, countering Chinese aggression and influence in India’s backyard is the “foundation” of US-India cooperation, according to USIP South Asia expert Daniel Markey.
More than 40 countries – including Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Argentina, Indonesia, Nigeria and Ethiopia – have signed up to participate. Many of these middle powers are also frustrated by the liberal international order and worried about what they see as American hegemony, with American and Western sanctions on the list of annoyances. . For them, BRICS offers an alternative.
Simply put, accepting any accession by these countries will affect the BRICS is in its decision-making process. BRICS works by consensus. The addition of members means that consensus is more difficult to reach, as each country has its own interests, priorities and relationships.
The participating countries can also play an important role in the trajectory of the BRICS. Will it develop into the kind of anti-Western bloc that China and Russia are looking for? For example, Iran would be happy to follow the lead of China and Russia in promoting an alternative to the US-led order. But a country like Saudi Arabia – despite its troubled relationship with Washington – might be less inclined to do so, as it values its security relationship with the United States.
Why is this important to the United States?
cheat: In strategic planning for short, medium, and long-term national security concerns, the United States must closely monitor developments in the BRICS. While expanding competition with China will remain central to U.S. foreign policy, understanding the growing relative influence and potential bottlenecks maintained by other major powers also very important. Fostering close ties with friends like India and South Africa is paramount – even as South Africa demonstrates closer ties with Russia. Such partnerships can act as a counterweight, ensuring that the BRICS trajectory does not point towards an anti-Western alignment. This, however, should not tempt Washington to lean too heavily into petty diplomacy to the detriment of multilateral efforts. Interacting even with competitors in larger platforms is a must to tackle the great challenges of our time together.
Gallagher: This BRICS summit comes at a time of turbulent and almost turbulent international politics. The growing rivalry between the US and China and Russia’s illegal war with Ukraine have highlighted geopolitical trends. If there is one big lesson for Washington, it must be that many countries, including traditional partners, are frustrated by the liberal international order and unhappy with the post-war unipolarity. Cold. The post-World War II system designed and led by the United States has seen one of the longest periods of global peace and prosperity in modern history. But nothing lasts forever. The United States should take these concerns seriously and consider how to rework, or at least modify, the current multilateral order to address these frustrations and concerns, working with allies and partners to address today’s major challenges. Otherwise, other powers will intervene, possibly in ways that do not advance American interests.
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